I’m working on a dynamic regression forecast. My software thinks it’s smarter than me. It’s wrong. I must find a way to defeat it in this battle of wits.
So, I am responsible for forecasting and scheduling production for a manufacturing company in the Midwest. They manufacture critical surgical equipment, so they can’t really afford to be short on stuff… on the other hand, manufacturing is low margin and having a lot of inventory on the shelf can be devastating. If you plot the demand points for the past 25 years looks a little like a kid threw up dipping dots on canvas…. no identifiable pattern whatsoever.
That means I have to try and use creative thought (not my strong suit) to come up with some influencing factors… I don’t know what they might be. They could be economic… could even be how many wars are going on in the world at the moment. I haven’t yet nailed it down. I know there must be something causing this “random walk,” in the demand. I just don’t know what it is. Yet.
It got me to thinking about the new minimum wage crap the Democrats are working on. If the minimum wage goes up two bucks an hour, that could crush a small business like this one, and let me be perfectly clear… NO ONE else on earth makes these products. NO ONE else on earth repairs and services these products. So if they go out of business, I guess a lot of people will just have to suffer and/or die.
I’ll bet they didn’t teach you THAT in economics.