What kind of profession allows routine incorrectness? People expect the forecast to be wrong, at least here in the midwest. If the forecast is correct within 15 degrees, it’s a success.
I’ve literally been driving through a thunderstorm, and the local weather is being broadcast on the radio “there’s a slight chance for rain today…” HELLO! If you just stuck your head out the window you could get that one right.
Three years ago we had a massive ice storm which left most of Kansas City without power for days. The power at my house was out for 9 straight days, and needless to say, it was frickin cold. The forecast didn’t say anything about a massive ice storm that was going to be so bad it caused all of the trees to break in two.
I’ve long thought that the weather was forecast using the “majority rules” method. 10 weathermen go into a room with no windows and vote. If two of them vote that it’s going to rain, the forecast calls for a 20% chance of rain.
It has to be a windowless room, because otherwise they would see that it’s ALREADY raining.
And then the extended forecast… give me a break. They can’t tell me what it’s going to be like in two hours, let alone 5 days from now.
Isn’t meteorology supposedly “science?” It seems to be more art than science, and it isn’t even good art. It’s like impressionistic neospongebob modern art.
Weathermen don’t even fight it. They are proud of their pathetic “streaks” where they predict 6 days in a row. (Meaning they got more than 50% of the forecast correct for 6 days) They pat themselves on the back for these freak statistical anomalies. I could get just as much success if I predicted the forecast using nothing but a random number generator.
You look at a situation like the hurricanes that are forever hitting the East and Gulf coasts of the US. The weather people say things like “It will make landfall in South Carolina at 6:00 on Tuesday, unless a kangaroo in the Singapore zoo sneezes on Monday, in which case it will hit Alabama at 8:00 on Monday, unless of course the warm air from Mexico mixes with the cold air from North Dakota which could cause the hurricane to veer wildly into New York. Frankly people, we don’t know where the hell it’s going to hit, nor do we know when, or what magnitude it will have, nor….”
There’s no other profession on earth where you can be wrong 80% of the time and not get fired.
I don’t have a solution for the problem. Perhaps fire all the meteorologists in the world, and just look out the window occassionally.